Shafik & Morsi: "potential threats" to Egypt's economy

Michael Tanner provides a bleak but accurate picture of the economic situation in Egypt and how both candidates: Shafik and Morsi could make things worse for Egyptians. Excerpts from Tanner's National Review article below: 

Image: FT

Dalia Mogahed on TED: 15 Minutes Worth Watching

Pollster Dalia Mogahed shares surprising data on Egyptian people's attitudes and hopes before the Arab Spring -- with a special focus on the role of women in sparking change.

Music I Listen To While Blogging: Fnaire

This song puts us in a good mood. It took us a loooong time though to fully understand the words and to manage to sing it with Moroccan Fnaire. 

The Menu: Bloody, Hesitant, Fragmented or Promising

Rami Khouri takes us on a tour of the Arab world and how each country is dealing with its political reform or regime changes. Some are bloody (Syria, Yemen and Bahrain), hesitant (Jordan), fragmented (Lebanon) or promising (surprisingly Egypt). Excerpts from Khouri's article on The Daily Star:

Image: New Geography

Israel's Right-Wing Delusions

Almost all conservatives in the US and Israel were concerned about the ouster of Mubarak and the rise of the Islamists in Egypt and the potential impact on the peace treaty with Israel. However, the right-wing in Israel is more supportive of the Egyptian revolution and the rising tensions in Jordan but for all the wrong reasons. Zvika Krieger from The Atlantic explains the right-wing's delusions: 

Creepy Car Ad Featuring Plastic Surgery Addicts

Smart car has a new and creepy ad out (we are not sure associating bad plastic surgery with the new model is a good idea).  In general, Smart doesn't need a facelift but a "power transplant". 

Egypt: Knowledge and Transparency Must Trump Ignorance and Secrecy

In a country ruled by regimes consistently promoting secrecy and denying the public access to information, corruption soared, inefficiency became the norm, accountability disappeared and security agencies abuses went unpunished. Now, as Egypt goes through its major transition towards democracy things will change, but the question is to waht extent. 

Sahar Aziz's excellent post on Democracy Digest (full post  here) details a road map to ensure a sustainable democracy through freedom of information. Excerpts below:

Quote of the Day: Syria "Just like in Bosnia"

Koert Debeuf lives in Cairo, where he represents the EU parliament's Alde group. He is the former advisor of a Belgian prime minister. Reporting from post-revolutionary Egypt, his blog is a window on events in the Arab world.

Photograph: Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images

The Mubarak Chronicles: Lost in La La Land

The Egyptian daily independent al-Watan ran a story about Mubarak’s life in jail (aka five-star hospital) and his reactions to developments in the Egyptian political scene. Al Arabiya provided a translation of al-Watan story. We are not sure of the story's authenticity but below are three of the most memorable excerpts:

Suzanne fighting with a nurse:

Mubarak on al-Baradei:

Mubarak on the Maspero massacre:

Horny? Grab a Snickers

I absolutely love the “You’re not you when you’re hungry” campaign by Snickers. My favorite is the one featuring Aretha Franklin. The above ad, used in Russia, is cute! 

Erdoğan's War on Choice and C-section!

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan shared his anti-abortion stance and opposition to C-section surgery (one of two women in Turkey prefers Cesarean surgery) in a statement last week. I'm not clear whether the PM's comments are scientific based (then the research should be shared) or religion based (to my knowledge in Islam there are a variety of opinions concerning abortion, particularly due to an idea that the soul only enters the fetus about four months after conception). Excerpt from Erdoğan's statement below:

As expected women's rights groups did not appreciate the above statement:

Source of the post: Today's Zaman

Image: AA

Shafik: "The Egyptian people, contrary to the accusations, are obedient"

According to the New York Times, Ahamed Shafik met recently with members of the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt. In the meeting Shafik described to the heads of multinationals working in Egypt how he would deal with their fears: Islamist takeover and lawlessness. Excerpts below from the NYT story:

Image: AP

And you thought your job sucked!

A laborer rests from shoveling coal inside a coal train in the outskirts of Jamu in India on Tuesday, May 29.

Via: Spiegel / Reuters

Do we have to explain "it" to you?

Buzz Feed compiled a number of ads that are penis inspired. This ad by Italy's BICE Bread is my favorite for its subtlety :-)   Some didn't like and overanalyzed the "sex sells" funny ad:

"Bread is essential to our lives just like a penis is essential for humanity and reproduction. The ad is almost saying the penis and bread are essential to life but no reference to the importance of women."

Egypt and Syria: Western Mistakes

George Friedman reflects on Egypt's presidential elections result and came to the conclusion that the West made two key mistakes (a) overestimating the strengths of the secularists in Egypt (incorrect: West mostly feared the Muslim Brotherhood strength and the Iran model) and  (b) underestimating the military regime's support between Egyptians (incorrect: Egyptians indeed support the army but not its "regime" as 75% of Egyptians voted for the non-army presidential candidates). 

Excerpts below from Friedman's article about the similarities between the events unfolding in Syria and the historical backdrop leading to the Egyptian revolution:

Since the realignment of Egypt with the United States and the fall of the Soviet Union, with which many of these states were allied, the sense that these regimes were nationalist declined. But it never evaporated. Certainly they were never seen as regimes imposed by foreign armies, as was the case in Eastern Europe. And their credentials as secularists remained credible. What they were not were liberal democracies, but they weren't founded as such. From the Western point of view, that delegitimized everything else.

What the Westerners forgot was that these regimes arose as expressions of nationalism against Western imperialism. The more that Westerners intervened against them, as in Iraq, the more support at least the principle of the regime would evince. But most important, Westerners did not always recognize that the demand for democratic elections would emerge as a battleground between secular and religious tendencies, and not as the crucible from which Western-style liberal democracies would emerge. Nor did Westerners appreciate the degree to which these regimes defended religious minorities from hostile majorities precisely because they weren't democratic. The Copts in Egypt cling to the old regime as their protector. The Alawites see the Syrian conflict as a struggle for their own survival.

The outcome of the Egyptian election, which now pits a former general and prime minister of the Mubarak regime against the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, demonstrates this dilemma perfectly. This is the regime that Nasser founded. It is the protector of secularism and minority rights against those who it is feared will impose religious law. The regime may have grown corrupt under Mubarak, but it still represents a powerful tendency among the Egyptians.

Image: The JC 

"This is Politics. This is Democracy"

Koert Debeuf, represents the EU parliament's Alde group and lives in Cairo, blogged about the best way, in his opinion, to safeguard the revolution in Egypt. The post is quite reasonable and reiterates an argument presented before by Liberal Koshari (here), The Arabist and Alaa Aswany: Strike a Deal with Morsi. Of course, we also read recently that Al-Shater from the Muslim Brotherhood thinks they will win riding on their "goodwill with the people". Al-Shater could be simply playing politics to better negotiate. Excerpt below from Debeuf's post:

"Truthiness": Shafik and Morsi Revolutionaries

"It used to be, everyone was entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts. But that's not the case anymore. Facts matter not at all... What is important? What you want to be true, or what is true?... Truthiness is 'What I say is right, and nothing anyone else says could possibly be true." 

Stephen Colbert, cultural commentator, host of "The Colbert Report" and 2008 Peabody Award winner

Flame: A Data Stealing Virus Infects the Middle East

This is shocking but hardly surprising. Iran was earlier infected by the Stuxnet worm, now it is discovered that most of the Middle East, including Egypt, is infected by the Flame virus since 2007. Below is an excerpt taken from Boing Boing based on a story published by Reuters. 

Update from Yahoo News:

Is The Carter Center Playing Politics and With Words?

The Cater Center "Preliminary Statement" was issued on May 26. The full report will be issued after four months. 

I have to say I'm quite surprised Jimmy Carter is all over the media endorsing the elections and declaring the process "acceptable" despite "some violations" given the very serious restrictions imposed on the observers that led to labeling their mission "limited".  We are also concerned by Carter's creativity with words as he declared the "vote" acceptable instead of "elections" acceptable. 

Below are two excerpts from the Statements that show the serious restrictions imposed on The Carter Center and the disconnect between his words and his center's Preliminary Statement.

Excerpt from the Executive Summary: 

Excerpt from the detailed statement:

Image: The Washington Post

To Al-Aswany: Take a deep breath and stop tweeting

Alaa Al-Aswany is on fire. He is all over Twitter asking for Shafik to be thrown out of the coming presidential elections for a variety of reasons: allegations of voting fraud by Shafik's campaign, allegations of financial fraud by Shafik and for being a member of Mubarak's regime (no "alleged" here).  Moreover he is recklessly supporting the new demonstrations in Egypt's streets from the comfort of his home. 

It is sad when people we like and respect act in a hysterical and irresponsible manner. We understand the logic of raising the voting fraud allegations and support having an independent investigation of them. However, Shafik's alleged "35 cases" of financial fraud are merely "allegations" at this stage and until independently proven and a court finds Shafik guilty, they are irrelevant in the decision of allowing Shafik in round two of the presidential elections.  

We expect angry emails because of this post. 

Sore Losers vs. Justice Seekers

The Arabist supports the new wave of rejecting Egypt's presidential elections' results based on the fraud allegations in favor of Shafik. We think, in the absence of a truly independent Presidential Elections Committee (PEC) to investigate the allegations, the demonstrators will be labeled by many Egyptians as "sore losers". Our favorite paragraph from The Arabist's  recent post below:

Michael Ware: "I should be dead. I wish I was."

Michael Ware, Australian journalist and for several years based in CNN's Baghdad bureau, reveals the impact of covering wars on him in an intense, powerful, personal and sad to read essay. His life has spiraled out of control as he couldn't handle the pressure of reporting from war afflicted countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Georgia. Excerpt below:

Other things I cannot remember, even when told of them, but I know they haunt my sleep; I tore my left shoulder right out of its socket during a dream one Friday night; awakened by the hellish sound of someone screaming before realizing it was me. So, yes, I still see things. Mired in a falsehood of self-medication, I applied blizzards of booze and drugs to buy me time. To get me from one dawn to another sleep. To give me the time to reconcile my decision to live. All stealing for me just one more day, one more day. Though in a perverted way it helped save me, it didn’t immunize me against the price for it all.

Cairokee is Back!

Cairokee is one of my favorite Egyptian bands but the first song from their upcoming album is "reductive". 

Feeding The Middle East

We have our reservations on the above chart by The Economist: source of data (Cargill), scope (food definition in the chart excludes meats, fruits and vegetables) and omission of the population size dimension (total population in Asia, Middle East and Africa is almost 5.5 billion compared to 1.5 billion in the rest of the world). Taking that in consideration, we still think it provides a scary prospect for the Middle East and Africa.  The Economist concludes:

"on the consumption side, it seems likely that Asia and the Middle East and Africa will continue to require increased imports to satisfy growing populations. To feed itself for the next half century, the world needs an agricultural revolution in Africa."

IMF: Signs of Revival in Tunisian Economy

As Egypt's economy tanks due to political and social uncertainties, Tunisia is on the right track with tourism and foreign investments returning. To cement the positive forecast, Tunisia is not requesting an IMF financing and the markets are confident in Tunisia's prospects without an IMF program filled with conditionalities. Excerpt from Reuters' analysis below:

Image: The BBC

Religion and Voting: Christians in America

The above video shows the similarities between some religious organizations regardless of religion and country. This reminded me of a great quotation by Thomas Jefferson: “Religious institutions that use government power in support of themselves and force their views on persons of other faiths, or of no faith, undermine all our civil rights. Moreover, state support of an established religion tends to make the clergy unresponsive to their own people, and leads to corruption within religion itself. Erecting the 'wall of separation between church and state,' therefore, is absolutely essential in a free society.”

The Arab Spring: Crisis in Faith or in Writing? Continued: The Tweets

Tamer Fouad, writer of "The Arab Spring and the Coming Crisis in Faith" responded to my post criticizing his article (click here to read my original post) through a number of tweets (see below). We respect Fouad for reading our article and taking the time to respond to our "unfair" post. My response to his tweets: 

(a) The article clearly links the rise of Islamists to power and the public's disillusionment with their performance to the increase in atheists willing to "come out". This is too simplistic and not corroborated with any polls or analysis. Most atheists would tell you that turning against faith is a personal journey that is in many cases driven by years of struggle and reflection, 

(b) The article sadly, like the Islamists, mixes politics with religion. Let me explain. I'd argue that, in most cases, if Islamists perform badly in the parliament, the public would punish them by removing them from power (e.g., the beating the Muslim Brotherhood took in the recent presidential elections). The public here is not turning into "atheists" or less friendly towards religion but are angry at bad politicians. They may, overtime start thinking of separating religion from politics (e.g., Pakistan) but they will not be "atheists" in doing so, they will be maturing as voters. And most probably after voting out the Islamists will go to the mosque to pray. 

(c) Fouad wonders about the need for being "gender specific" ignoring the Islamists' vicious and "specific" attacks on women rights. If we are going to talk about "disillusionment", women more than men have been the focus of "absurd laws" so one may expect some retaliation against Islamists. For example, according to Ahram Online more women voted for Shafik than men. Is that women punishing Islamists? Could be, I don't know but worth investigating. According to a Juan Cole recent article more women are removing the veil since Islamists took power. Is that true? There is definitely a woman dimension here which is not unique to Egypt as we see similar debates in other countries (e.g., in the US the Democrats coined the slogan "Republicans' War on Women" to highlight the rise of the conservatives and tea party influence in the Republican party. This is not an attack on religion by Democrats but on primitive conservatism). 

(d) Fouad did not respond to my key concerns listed in the first paragraph of my original post. 

MB's Inspiration: "Existence Precedes Essence"

Nathan Brown's article in The Guardian raises a number of questions about the Muslim Brotherhood actions and more importantly the actions by non-Islamists in the future. Excerpts below:

New Book: The Self Illusion

Book Description by Publisher: 

Most of us believe that we are an independent, coherent self--an individual inside our head who thinks, watches, wonders, dreams, and makes plans for the future. This sense of our self may seem incredibly real but a wealth of recent scientific evidence reveals that it is not what it seems--it is all an illusion.  

In The Self Illusion, Bruce Hood reveals how the self emerges during childhood and how the architecture of the developing brain enables us to become social animals dependent on each other. Humans spend proportionally the greatest amount of time in childhood compared to any other animal. It's not only to learn from others, Hood notes, but also to learn to become like others. We learn to become our self. Even as adults we are continually developing and elaborating this story, learning to become different selves in different situations--the work self, the home self, the parent self. Moreover, Hood shows that this already fluid process--the construction of self--has dramatically changed in recent years. Social networking activities--such as blogging, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Twitter--are fast becoming socialization on steroids. The speed and ease at which we can form alliances and relationships are outstripping the same selection processes that shaped our self prior to the internet era. Things will never be the same again in the online social world. Like the science fiction movie, we are living in a matrix that is our mind. But Hood concludes that though the self is an illusion, it is an illusion we must continue to embrace to live happily in human society.

In an interview with Sam Harris, the author puts his "dangerous" book in context:

Gaga Gagged: "There is nothing holy about hatred"

Not a fan of Lady Gaga, but I now feel I need to buy her music and play it. Loud. It's the 21st century and Gaga's music is online and on TV, so message to Indonesia's Council of Ulema, stop the embarrassing posturing in the name of Islam. Excerpt from a CNN report below: