Recently we've been hearing and reading about a compromise that may be reached between the army and Islamists. The compromise would allow the army to leave politics and go back to the barracks.
This floated compromise usually includes demands such as independence of the army's budget from the general budget (e.g., no oversight by a parliament committee or the central auditing agency), retaining their economic empire with the perks that come with it (e.g., tax exemptions) and legal immunity of the army and its personnel from prosecution (e.g., torture, killings and corruption).
These demands are logical and a reasonable person would imagine the army to be considering in a deal with Islamists but I doubt that this is the case. The army is intelligent and experienced enough to gamble by trusting the Islamists. I expect the army to play for time and seek an ambiguous reality at least in the short run. In other words, instead of taking concrete actions to give up power we will get sucked into a lot of process (e.g., form a committee, prepare a decree, discuss a referendum, etc).
I imagine the army strategy would consist of three folds:
- Divide the Islamists: This would include ensuring that the Islamists camp (Salafis, Muslim Brotherhood and Young Muslim Brothers) is never united. This is not a difficult task given how the three factions dislike each other and being political novices.
- Redirect the People's Anger: Most Egyptians have high expectations of the new parliament (jobs, economic recovery, fighting corruption, etc.) but these expectations will not materialize at least in the coming four years (global economic crisis, dwindling tourism, etc.) This will make the parliament and the president to be, the focus of the people's anger.
- Keep America Happy: The U.S. wants three things from Egypt (i) support in the fight against terrorism and Iran, (ii) the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel retained and (iii) Islamists to fail. I imagine the army will be happy to help.
So to conclude, the army is here to stay. The center of Egypt's politics won't be the weak presidency or the powerless parliament, it will be the army and its generals. As we've seen over the past year, real progress in Egypt's "freedom agenda" came through pressure by Tahrir Square. This will remain the case in the coming years.