To say that Egypt’s future hangs
in the balance is an understatement. We are in a big mess with the Egyptian
economy going down the drain due to mounting debts, stagnant economic growth,
depleted foreign reserves and tourism numbers significantly down and with each
new killing on Cairo’s streets any hope of recovery fades, unemployment is
skyrocketing especially among those under 30-years-old which feeds the unrest
as more demonstrations take place due to frustration and helplessness, non-provision
of public services and dysfunctional service delivery systems that are plagued with
bottlenecks lead to the creation of parallel systems by the Islamists in many
villages, weak and ineffective government and parliament that lead to paralysis
and inability to govern, labor unions are angrier than ever due to mounting
demands left pending, Mubarak cronies remain at large with billions of Egypt's
money and even worse use this money to destabilize the country, rule of law in
Egypt's streets has disappeared with criminality becoming the norm and
widespread corruption is getting worse, the army’s economic empire continues to resist any form
of independent oversight yet they control around 40% of the country’s economy,
Sinai and the eastern-border are turning into a haven for terrorists and
smugglers which could threaten Egypt’s relationship with Israel and destabilize
the country as more weapons freely enter the country, foot-and-mouth disease is
spreading among cattle stock while bird flu cases remain to be registered in
most Egypt’s governorates, the Nile River dispute between Egypt and upstream
nations is lurking on the sidelines, the drafting of the new constitution is
threatening to divide the country, and the threats to freedom of speech,
freedom of religion and women rights are no longer theoretical but very real.
To sum things up Egypt is fast becoming a full blown “failed state” and as a
result the coming presidential election should be taken very seriously by all
Egyptians.
In Liberal Koshari we decided back
in January to endorse a presidential candidate and to make our decision known
to our readers. In a typical Liberal Koshari style we spent three weeks
debating the most important qualities we are looking for in Egypt’s first
freely elected president. These qualities, some of them are quite
subjective, formed the basis of our decision. We came with the following laundry
list of qualities we want in a president: wise, intelligent, inspiring, assertive, pragmatic, honest, courageous, forward-looking,
well-educated, works well with others, low on drama and conspiracy theories, preferably neither “Folool” nor from the
Muslim Brotherhood, has a real chance of wining and not over 65-years-old.
We classified the major
candidates into three groups: (a) Islamists: Mohamed Morsi, Aboul Fotouh and
Al-Awa, (b) Folool: Amr Mousa and Ahmed Shafik and (c) "Also Ran": Hisham
Bastawesi, Hamdeen Sabahi and Khaled Ali. After analyzing all candidates and
recent polling numbers, it became clear to us that only three candidates have a
real chance of winning: Amr Moussa (tainted secular), Mohamed Morsi (Islamist-heavy) and Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh (Islamist-lite). This list doesn’t necessarily reflect
our views and/or wishes but all indicators show that these are the only
candidates with the needed organization, funding, name recognition and behind
the scenes support to win. We wish we had a different menu to choose from as
none of the candidates completely meet our criteria, we were even tempted to support Hisham
Bastawesi but a vote for any of the “Also Ran” group is a wasted vote and not voting is indeed a sign of rejecting the unpleasant reality but in the end a candidate of others choice would win so abstaining is not an option and pointless. We
decided to “squeeze a lemon” on the "best" of the three, grudgingly make a selection
(gamble?) and move forward.
Liberal Koshari decided to
endorse Aboul Fotouh. Despite not meeting many of our criteria, Aboul Fotouh is a
better candidate than Mousa and Morsi who come with hefty, known and unknown,
baggage that makes it reckless to seriously consider any of them to run Egypt. Morsi was never an option given his positions, background and being linked to the Shater camp of the Brotherhood. Mousa, was a close second but he was always better as a theoretical idea rather than a real option.
We are liberals and the mere
notion of endorsing Aboul Fotouh “a leading force in the militant Islamist student movements
of the 1970s; one of the Muslim Brotherhood’s point men for aiding the
mujahideen in Afghanistan during the 1980s; and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood’s
Guidance Office for twenty-two years” is utterly painful yet, we like to think,
our decision reflects Liberal Koshari's pragmatism.
Aboul Fotouh made it even harder
on us by recently receiving the endorsement of the most influential Salafist organization,
al-Dawa al-Salafiyya and its political arm, the Nour Party. We are not sure
whether Aboul Fotouh promised something in return for the Salafis support in bringing him lower and working classes votes, including Hazem Abu Ismail supporters. Both deny a deal. The
Salafis claim their decision is in retaliation for the Muslim Brotherhood
decision to run a candidate. We like to think, Aboul Fotouh's decision to pursue the Salafis' endorsement reflects his pragmatism.
It is important to judge
candidates based on their record (actions and words) rather than rely on recent
pandering to gain votes. Aboul Fotouh record is very mixed. Let’s start by the
“actions”. For twenty-two years he was a leader in the Muslim Brotherhood’s
Guidance Office yet he failed to modernize the group and till today it lacks
transparency and its internal governance structure is vague and has many aspects in common with Mubarak's National Party. Aboul Fotouh left
the Brotherhood not due to ideological differences but because of his
political aspirations to become Egypt’s president.
On the “words” front, we
have three disturbing examples: (a) He supports the establishment of a sharia-based
legal system in Egypt. He tends to change his tone when
discussing this thorny issue depending on the audience: moderates and
seculars receive a nuanced answer (although still supporting some light shade of sharia) while
conservatives and radicals get an assertive promise of applying sharia (a darker shade of sharia though is usually applied), (b) He
shamefully blamed Egypt’s Christians for being massacred by the army during the
Maspero demonstrations while defending the army’s actions at the time. Utterly despicable
and indefensible and (c) He absurdly and insensitively denied the terrorists responsibility for committing the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. as he believes
it is part of a “conspiracy” (very Egyptian of him).
Yet, we are supporting him for
President. We said earlier it was not an easy decision and it felt like
choosing between "The Bad, The Ugly and The Horrible”. So, it is fair to say
that our endorsement of Aboul Fotouh is more about not endorsing Moussa and
Morsi. Saying that, there are a number of things we like about Aboul Fotouh:
(a) his support of women and Christians to run for political office, including
becoming president (we wish he supported a quota system for women in the parliament though), (b) unlike Morsi and Salafis, Aboul Fotouh has a more
tolerant understanding and interpretation of the Quran verses. For example, “There is no
compulsion in religion,” which he interprets to mean that the state should not
compel people to follow religious rules, (c) his position on separating “men of
religion” from politics is a great first step although short from calling for complete separation of religion from state, (d) confronting Sadat in the late 70s (as a result he was imprisoned), conspiring against Mubarak in the late 90s (as a result spent six years in
jail) and defying the Muslim Brotherhood in 2011 (as a result was fired from the group)
reflect an independent streak and courage that we find appealing and much
needed in Egypt’s next president and (e) he meets a number of the criteria
we added to our “laundry list” (e.g., 60-years-old, well-educated, works well
with others which is essential given the current fragmentation in Egypt's politics, scandals free and has a real chance of winning).
Also, we think the manner a presidential candidate manages his or her campaign says a lot about the candidate (think Obama vs. Clinton in 2008 and El-Baradei vs. Aboul Fotouh in 2012). Aboul Fotouh's campaign has a clear and unified message, tight with strong organization structure that deals with issues and rumors as they arise and creative yet down to earth to avoid being labeled "elitist" (check their latest television ad here).
Also, we think the manner a presidential candidate manages his or her campaign says a lot about the candidate (think Obama vs. Clinton in 2008 and El-Baradei vs. Aboul Fotouh in 2012). Aboul Fotouh's campaign has a clear and unified message, tight with strong organization structure that deals with issues and rumors as they arise and creative yet down to earth to avoid being labeled "elitist" (check their latest television ad here).
Aboul Fotouh is not our ideal
candidate and we disagree with a number of his views (as we indicated above) and
with those who claim he is a “liberal” (as we mentioned above, he is "Islamist-lite" a la Tunisia's Ennahda). We
realize that some of our readers will be disappointed with this endorsement but
we think, compared to the other names in the running, Aboul Fotouh is the right
man to lead Egypt for the coming five years.
