Sultan Al-Qassemi, a UAE-based
commentator on Arab affairs, analyzes the impact of the Muslim Brotherhood’s
nomination of Khairat Elshater for the Egyptian presidency on Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Al-Qassemi theory
is that Saudi is anti-Elshater (fear of Muslim Brotherhood and close ties with
the Mubarak regime evidenced by Omar Suleiman's recent visit to the Kingdom) and Qatar is pro-Elshater (embraced the
Muslim Brotherhood for years and close ties with Elshater as evidenced by his appearance
on Al Jazeera and his recent visit to the tiny state). Excerpt from the article below:
"There is no denying the keen interest that these two wealthy and influential Gulf States will be paying to the Egyptian presidential elections. To Saudi Arabia, the notion of an influential Arabic Islamic leaning republic offering competing ideologies to its own Wahhabi teachings could pose a threat to its dominant role in the Sunni Muslim world. To Qatar, a relationship that it has carefully cultivated over decades may finally be bearing fruit, turning a once cold relationship with Egypt into a strategic and valuable partnership."
I think Al-Qassemi is missing an
important point. When it comes to Saudi Arabia there are two factions: (a) the
political regime and (b) the Islamic regime. I have no doubt that the former is
quite concerned with the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis in
Egypt as it provides their counterpart in Saudi with a model to replicate. On
the other hand, the latter supports and funds the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis
for religious reasons (i.e., application of Sharia law in the most populous
country in the Arab world) and political reasons (i.e., if the Brotherhood’s governing
model succeeds in Egypt, it can succeed in Saudi or at least puts pressure on
the King and his cronies).
Finally,
the below excerpt from the article is quite telling:
Qatar and Saudi have promised the largest amounts of pledges to the Egyptian government; the first promised a staggering amount of US$10 billion in projects and financial aid while the latter promised up to $4 billion. Both states have transferred $500 million to Egypt’s coffers so far.
So,
why are the two Gulf States not releasing the money? I'd say they are either
waiting for the IMF loan to be approved (i.e., Egyptian Government commit to a
broad economic reform plan to ensure money will not be wasted) and/or as a bargaining tool
(i.e., once the dust settles and a president is elected they will start
negotiating conditional release of funds for specific political demands).
Releasing, or promising to release, the outstanding $13.5 billion providing a certain president is elected (this is usually done in a subtle way to not alienate the masses) would have a significant impact on the presidential election result.
