Crisis Group published a new report "Lost in Transition: The World According to Egypt"s SCAF". Beside having a great title, the report tries to find an explanation and the drivers behind many of SCAF's, some would argue illogical, decisions made since February 2011.
The election may well be the SCAF’s last chance to peacefully produce a “balanced” political system, reflecting the Muslim Brotherhood’s parliamentary supremacy, yet also protecting interests critical to the military. Should Egyptians elect an Islamist without a prior understanding between the political forces and the military, the SCAF could well find itself at once powerful and helpless, unable to influence the process save by unconstitutional – and highly risky – moves. The prospect of renewed, widespread confrontation and an abrupt halt to the transitional process, once remote, no longer is unthinkable. The end result could be a presidential election that further inflames the situation, gives rise to institutional and extra-institutional challenges, jeopardises the transition and settles nothing.
Needless to say, neither SCAF nor the Muslim Brotherhood wanted this to happen and there is still a chance to avoid a major clash that would destabilize the country even more.
