During
last year's Egyptian uprising, Omar Suleiman, VP for a week, said that
Egyptians were not ready for democracy. Seculars and Islamists knew he was
right but denying and using it to topple the Mubarak regime was the
politically astute thing to do. The Seculars naively thought they will share
the process of determining the future of Egypt with the Brotherhood, after all
they are the ones that removed Mubarak and the Brotherhood only joined later.
The Brotherhood went with the flow and at the right moment used the Islam card
and coordinated with the army to marginalize the Seculars. The army as in the
case for the past 30 years is only looking to retain and increase its
privileges struck a deal with the Islamists. The Brotherhood ended up
controlling half of the parliament and plan to have a candidate run for
president despite earlier promises to target only third of the parliament and
to not run a candidate for president.
Now, the process for drafting the new constitution is going through similar maneuvering. Originally, the parliament was supposed to supervise the establishment of the Constituent Assembly from non-parliamentarians, however the Brotherhood decided, while coordinating with the Salafis, to assign 40% of the Constituent Assembly members to the parliament. Later, and moments before voting, the percentage was increased to 50%. The other "non-parliamentarians" 50% is mostly dominated by pro-Islamists as Seculars withdrew from the process and it is rumored that the Salafis are keeping a veto power over members to be considered for inclusion. The Brotherhood, despite despising the Salafis, knew that the uber-Islamists would support them as long as Sharia implementation in Egypt is guaranteed and expedited. The result is a Constituent Assembly dominated by Islamists with a total of ten Christians and women out of the 100 members. This will put Egypt on the fast track to Sharia based governing while creating the pillars to ensure the Brotherhood stays in power.
Now, the process for drafting the new constitution is going through similar maneuvering. Originally, the parliament was supposed to supervise the establishment of the Constituent Assembly from non-parliamentarians, however the Brotherhood decided, while coordinating with the Salafis, to assign 40% of the Constituent Assembly members to the parliament. Later, and moments before voting, the percentage was increased to 50%. The other "non-parliamentarians" 50% is mostly dominated by pro-Islamists as Seculars withdrew from the process and it is rumored that the Salafis are keeping a veto power over members to be considered for inclusion. The Brotherhood, despite despising the Salafis, knew that the uber-Islamists would support them as long as Sharia implementation in Egypt is guaranteed and expedited. The result is a Constituent Assembly dominated by Islamists with a total of ten Christians and women out of the 100 members. This will put Egypt on the fast track to Sharia based governing while creating the pillars to ensure the Brotherhood stays in power.
The
Seculars keep talking about "another" revolution to remove the
Islamists while just six months ago they talked about "another"
revolution to remove the heads of the army. Both will not happen because unlike
Mubarak the Islamist have "Islam on their side", the army has the
weapons and the money while the Seculars have Facebook. More importantly, the
people are tired from the constant state of demonstrating and the impact on
their daily lives.
Time
to reflect on the past fourteen months, consolidate and develop a realistic
vision with an implementable strategy aiming at having a more relevant and
effective secular movement by 2020. The Seculars cannot change the political
reality today however, history and other countries experience tell us that the
more Islamists get power and stay in power they fight each other (Pakistan) and
lose the people (Iran). Seculars need to be ready for that to happen and to be
able to capitalize on the Islamists inevitable decline in popularity and losing
their holier than thou "brand".
The
Seculars need to have the right message and tailored solutions to convince the
public, rural and urban, they deserve to run the country regardless of the
Islam card. As for the struggle to reform the army and its generals, it
will not be easy and there will be the temptation to strike deals with the army
to beat the Islamists (same mess in Indonesia).
The
West is watching developments in Egypt with caution and trying not to get
involved, at least directly and openly, as they don't want to be perceived as
anti-Islamists or meddling in Egypt's internal matters (e.g., the NGOs fiasco).
This is understandable, however if by 2020 the Seculars are a viable option and
it becomes clear the tide is turning against the Islamists, the West will
support the Seculars with full force, which could tip the scale.
Saying
that, to beat the Islamists, Seculars need a homegrown solution that sounds,
looks and feels Egyptian.
I
know it is hard to be optimistic about Egypt's future given the recent
developments. I also have trust in the simple, uneducated and not ready for
democracy Egyptians that once given the choice between a better life and more
beards in the parliament, will vote the beards back to the mosque.
