After the Egyptian revolution
managed to oust Mubarak, I predicted a fragmented political life in Egypt with
tensions between Islamists vs. Seculars, Muslim Brotherhood vs. Salafis
and the military vs. everyone else. This prediction was not unique as many
Egyptians saw it coming. What I didn’t expect is the accelerated consolidation
of powers in the hands of the Islamists. Today they control the People’s Assembly,
Shura Council and any future president of Egypt has to be supported by the Brotherhood to win.
The Brotherhood announced it would not run
a candidate in the coming presidential elections and claims it will not support
any of the candidates. I have my
doubts about both assertions. Less than a year ago the Brotherhood promised to only run
for 35% of the parliament seats, they now control almost half of the seats. I
imagine they are carefully considering their options on whether to formally
support a candidate or support a candidate from behind the scenes.
When the Brotherhood announced its
disinterest in the presidency, it was trying to assure the West and the
financial markets through sending a signal that they are pragmatic and want to
pursue a balanced approach to governing. Now the realities and the assumptions
on the ground are different. The Brotherhood knows that the seculars are weak with
no real presence in the street (elections results); the West is wiling to play politics with
whoever in power (accepting the Egyptian military abuses and now the radical Salafis) and if they don’t control the process, a Salafi may become
Egypt’s next president (the Salafis will probably have a candidate).
The Brotherhood, in my opinion, will probably go for a transitional non-Islamist president to lead Egypt for
the coming six years. Amr Moussa will fit their criteria: pragmatic (he will
dance with them), anti-America and Israel (will make them look moderate especially that Moussa is all bark), welcomed by the military (he is part of the old regime just like the generals), tolerated by the West (hey, he drinks and speaks good English!) and
old (he will be 82 after the end of his first term). Also, the Brotherhood doesn’t want
to control all aspects of the decision making in Egypt as voters will hold them
fully responsible in the next elections. In other words, it is better to have a friendly
scapegoat ready.
